Tuesday, June 2, 2009

ANTIGENICS (AGEN) study

3 Super Reasons to buy AGEN now at $0.90

Park $10,000 in AGEN and you can be a millionaire in 2011.

1. The drug is already approved in Russia and is awaiting commercialisation which is very imminent. Once drug goes on sale in Russia, I am expecting this stock to be trading at 500 million dollars market capitalisation. Why, because, this is what i found.

"An estimated 16,000 Russians will be diagnosed with kidney cancer and 8011 will die of the disease in the Russia in 2008. 
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) comprises approximately 4% and 2.7% of all malignancies in men and women, respectively."

From a site which i forgot, ONCOPHAGE course cost $10,000 to $20,000.

So let's say half of the cancer patients take up oncophage, the profit is expected to be 8000 X $10000 = $80,000,000 per year. (this is assuming the least possible result)

Currently, there is about 80 million outstanding shares. Earnings per share could be about $1 per share. Based on standard P/E ratio of at least 5, this stock should be trading at $5.

2. AGEN has submitted its marketing plan to European Union. If approved, look at this from wikipedia.

"The most recent estimates of incidence of kidney cancer suggest that there are 63,300 new cases annually in the EU25."

let's say half again take up oncophage. 30000 X $10000 = $300,000,000

It's a $300million dollar profit. I am sure by then the outstanding shares would have increased to about 100million shares.

So that will allow the stock to rise to $15. 

"In the United States in 2008, these two types together are estimated to cause 54,390 new cases and 13,010 deaths."

Possible to be $30 by next year.

3. ONCOPHAGE is also being investigated in phase 3 to treat melanoma.

"Around 160,000 new cases of melanoma are diagnosed worldwide each year."

This will help AGEN to rise another $30. Plus a stock split. maybe. 

Target 2011 = $60 X 2 due to stock split.

Buying at $1, this stock is able to get you 120X in 2 years.

$10,000 = $1.2 million

"Oncophage has been granted fast track and orphan drug designations from the US Food and Drug Administration for kidney cancer and metastatic melanoma. Oncophage has orphan drug status for kidney cancer from the European Medicines Agency."

It's a ORPHAN drug. Which means it is the only drug available to vaccinate against reoccurrence of CANCER.

So the possible target patients are 200,000 (kidney cancer) + 160,000 (melanoma).

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